South Sudan’s Election and the Prospect of Post-Electoral Violence
Keywords:
post-conflict, elections, peace, security, political violenceAbstract
Post-war elections, a crucial step in the journey towards peace, are a cornerstone of rebuilding and stabilising societies after conflict. They lay the groundwork for sustainable peace by fostering legitimacy, promoting reconciliation, ensuring democratic governance, and facilitating economic recovery and development. Despite success in a few cases, post-war elections have not always yielded desirable outcomes, and South Sudan will not be an exception. This paper argues that the anticipated elections in South Sudan are not merely a political event but a potential catalyst for violence. The nascent state is already grappling with violence, fragile political and institutional capacity, and the ongoing conflict and instability in various regions pose significant risks to the safety of voters and election officials. Armed groups and intercommunal violence further exacerbate the situation, on top of power struggles, logistical challenges due to poor infrastructure and the lack of administrative capacity. South Sudan is a divided state, and that has made ethnic tensions one of the critical drivers of inter-ethnic and communal conflicts, which have driven millions away from their homes, hence affecting voter education and participation. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated efforts from the South Sudanese government, civil society, and the international community, whose roles are crucial in creating an environment conducive to free, fair, and peaceful elections. The international community, in particular, plays a significant role in ensuring that South Sudan’s elections are conducted in a manner that upholds democratic principles and respects human rights. These challenges highlight the absence of the minimum requirements for conducting successful elections and reducing the destabilising risk associated with post-election situations.
Downloads
References
Aduot, M. (2021). Politics of the post-war: Assessing the process of Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration in South Sudan (DDR) 2005-11. Deakin University. Thesis. https://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30167695
Akzin, B. (1960). Election and Appointment. American Political Science Review, Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 705–13.
Behn, D. (1998). The New Public Management Paradigm and the Search for Democratic Accountability. International Public Management Journal, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 131–164.
Berdal, M. (1996). Disarmament and Demobilisation after Civil Wars: Arms, Soldiers, and the Termination of Conflict. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Bollen, K. (1993). Liberal Democracy: Validity and Method Factors in Cross-National Measures. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 1207.
Brancati, D. & Snyder, L. (2013). Time to Kill: The Impact of Election Timing on Post-conflict Stability. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 57, No. 5, pp. 822–853.
Collier et al. (2003). Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy. https://doi.org/10.1037/e504012013-001
Collier, P. & Hoeffler. A. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4), 563–595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064
Conway, M. (2023). The repair manual of democracy: on Jan-Werner Müller’s Democracy Rules. History of European Ideas, 50(1), 155–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/01916599.2023.2218668
Coyne, C.J. (2006). Reconstructing Weak and Failed States: Insights from Tocqueville. Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies, 2006, No. 31, Vol 2, pp. 143–162. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=911654
Daly, Z. (2022). A Farewell to Arms? Election Results and Lasting Peace after Civil War. International Security, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 163–204.
De Waal, A. (2014). WHEN KLEPTOCRACY BECOMES INSOLVENT: BRUTE CAUSES OF THE CIVIL WAR IN SOUTH SUDAN. African Affairs, 113(452), 347–369. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43817143
Diamond, L. (2006). Promoting Democracy in Post-conflict and Failed States. Taiwan Journal of Democracy, VOL. 2, No. 2, pp. 93–116.
Doyle, W., Sambanis, N. (2006). Making War and Building Peace: United Nations Peace Operations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Fearon, J. D. & Laitin D. D. (2004). Neotrusteeship and the problem of weak states. International Security, 28(4), 5–43. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4137448
Fukuyama, F, & McFaul, M. (2007). Should Democracy be Promoted or Demoted? Washington Quarterly, Vol . 31, No.1, pp.23-45.
Hartzell, C. A., & Hoddie, M. (2020). Power sharing and democracy in Post-Civil war states. In Cambridge University Press eBooks. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108775724
Hazelton, L. (2021). Counterinsurgency: Eating Soup with a Chainsaw. In Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare (pp. 1–7). Cornell University Press.
Hegre, H. (2014). Democracy and armed conflict. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 51, No.2, pp. 159–172.
Held, D. (1999). Model of Democracy. Second (Edn.), Polity Press, England.
Hoffmann (1995). Beyond the State: An Introductory Critique. Cambridge University Press, p. 3.
Holden, N. (2022). Bullets not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare. Small Wars & Insurgencies. Taylor & Francis Journals, Vol 8, No. 33, pp. 1444–1448, https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2022.2125224
Horowitz, L. (1985). Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Horowitz, L. (1998). Structure and Strategy in Ethnic Conflict. Paper Prepared for the Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, Washington, DC.
Huntington, S. P. (1993). The clash of civilizations? Foreign Affairs, 72(3), 22–49. https://doi.org/10.2307/20045621
Joseph, R. (1997). Democratisation in Africa after 1989: Comparative and Theoretical Perspectives. Comparative Politics, Vol. 29, No. 3: pp. 363–382.
Kaufmann, C. (1996). Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars. International Security, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 136–175. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539045
Kelley, J. & McAllister, I. (1985). Social Context and Electoral Behaviour in Britain. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 564–586. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111143
Kovacs, M. S. (2001). When rebels change their stripes: armed insurgents in post-war politics. In Cambridge University Press eBooks (pp. 134–156). https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511755859.006
Kumar, K (1998). ed., Post-conflict Elections, Democratisation, and International Assistance. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner.
Kumar, K. (1998). Post-conflict Elections, Democratisation, and International Assistance. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Kuol, L. (2010). Social capital and civil war: The Dinka communities in Sudan’s civil war. African Affairs, Vol. 109, No. 435, pp. 231–250.
Kuol, L. (2023). South Sudan is Gearing up for its First Election – 3 Things it Must get Right; Published: August 16, 2023, Accessed: 24/01/2024 https://theconversation.com/south-sudan-is-gearing-up-for-its-first-election-3-things-it-must-get-right-211355
Lake & Rothschild, D. (1998). The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Luckham, R. (1994). The Military, Militarisation and Democratisation in Africa: A Survey of Literature and Issues. African Studies Review, No. 37, Vol. 2, pp. 13–75.
Lyons, T. (2004). Post-conflict elections and the process of Demilitarising Politics: the role of electoral administration, Democratisation. Open Journal of Political Science, Vol . 11, No. 3, pp. 36–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351034042000238167
Malešević, S. (2017). The Organisation of Military Violence in the 21st Century. Organisation, No.24, Vol. 4, pp. 456-474. https://doi.org/10.1177/1350508417693854
Mill, J.S. (1993). The Representative Government: the Criteria of a good Government, in the States and Society, (Edn.), Held et al., Robertson in Association With Open University, Oxford, pp.97–100.
Nwolise, C. (2007). Electoral Violence and Nigeria’s 2007 elections. Journal of African Elections. Vol. 6, pp. 155–179. https://doi.org/10.20940/JAE/2007/v6i2a9
O’Donnell, G. (1999). Horizontal Accountability in New Democracies, in Andreas Schedler, Larry Diamond & Marc F. Plattner (Eds), The Self-Restraining State: Power and Accountability in New Democracies, London: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Ragin, C. (1987). The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Reilly, B. (2008). Post-war elections: Uncertain turning points of transition. In From War to Democracy: Dilemmas of Peace-building. Cambridge University Press.
Reilly, B. (2013). Elections and Post-Conflict Political Development, in Mats Berdal and Dominik Zaum (eds), Political Economy of Statebuilding: Power after Peace (London and New York, NY: Routledge.
Reilly, B. (2017). Critical Issues for Post-Conflict Elections. The RUSI Journal, Vol 162, No.5, pp. 16–24, DOI: 10.1080/03071847.2017.1397391
Rincon, J. (2014). Militarised politics is the norm in troubled South Sudan. In A. Naughtie (Ed.), The Conversation. https://doi.org/10.64628/ab.rfxnmmtxy
Rolandsen, O. & Daly, M.W. (2016). A History of South Sudan: From Slavery to Independence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Rousseau, J. (1913). (1969). The Social Contract and Discourse. (eds.), by Cole, GDH, London: Dent Glencoe, IL Free Press.
Schmitter, C, & Terry, K. (1996). What democracy is, and Is Not. In The Global Resurgence of Democracy, 2nd ed., Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Sesay, M. A. (1996). Civil war and collective intervention in Liberia. Review of African Political Economy, 23(67). https://doi.org/10.1080/03056249608704176
Sisk, T., (1998). Elections and Conflict Management in Africa: Conclusions and Recommendations. In Timothy D. Sisk and Andrew Reynolds, eds., Elections and Conflict Management in Africa (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Steven, R. (2023). Kleptocracy and Its Warring Contents, South Sudan’s Fateful Struggle: Building Peace in a State of War. (New York, 2023; online (Edn), Oxford Academic, September 28, 2023), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190057848.003.0005
Stokes, G. (2004). Transnational Citizenship: Problems of Definition, Culture and Democracy. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Vol . 17, No. 1, pp.119–35.
Suchman, M. C. (1995). Managing Legitimacy: strategic and institutional approaches. Academy of Management Review, 20(3), 571. https://doi.org/10.2307/258788
Tessler, M. (2002). Islam and Democracy in the Middle East: The Impact of Religious Orientations on Attitudes toward Democracy in Four Arab Countries. Comparative Politics, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 337–54.
United Nations. (2024). If not managed carefully, South Sudan elections could result in ‘Disastrous consequences,’ peacekeeping chief warns Security Council | UN meetings coverage and press releases. (2024, March 5). https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15611.doc.htm
Walter, B. (2004). Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 371–88.
Whitson, J. A., Wang, C. S., See, Y. H. M., Baker, W. E., & Murnighan, J. K. (2015). How, when, and why recipients and observers reward good deeds and punish bad deeds. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 128, 84–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2015.03.006
Published on: 17-12-2025
Also Available On
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Marial Mach Aduot
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors contributing to this journal retain the copyright of their articles but agree to publish their articles under the terms of the Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0 License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, and to remix, transform, and build upon the material, for any purpose, even commercially, under the condition that appropriate credit is given, that a link to the license is provided, and that they indicate if changes were made. They may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses them or their use.
