Ukraine’s Security Architecture After Ceasefire: U.S. Commitments and the Future of European Defense

Abstract

This study analyzes the security architecture of Ukraine, which evolved after the termination of hostilities and specifically, how the U.S. engagements with Ukraine affect their security. The first aims to examine the changing nature of Ukrainian security environment in the post ceasefire era, to examine the role played by the United States in the Ukrainian defence posture and to examine the consequences thereof to the structure of European defence systems, particularly NATO. The discussion is based on two theoretical approaches: Neorealism, which predicts the relationship of power and the desire of the states to find safety, and Complex Interdependence Theory, which emphasizes the cooperation of multilateralism and non-war aspects of security. The results show that there is a major change in the security architecture in Ukraine due to both the internal and external assistance, with most of this support coming through the United States and European supporters. The United States has a key role in modernizing the defence and aligning Ukraine strategic direction with NATO as the European defence approaches are shifting to greater independence and capability. Despite these developments, the paper identifies the ongoing threats due to Russian aggression, internal governance challenges and the need to have strong international collaboration to maintain stability. In summary, despite the fact that the security perspective of Ukraine has been enhanced by the process of reform and foreign support, the further stability on the long-term basis requires reduction of the internal vulnerabilities and the external threats. The European defence path will then be predominantly hinged on the balances between the NATO commitments and the strategic autonomy and technological innovations.